Velders, G. J. M., Andersen, S. O., Daniel, J. S., Fahey, D. W. & McFarland, M. The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate. & Garcia, R. R. The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones. The Montreal Protocol didn't just preserve the ozone layer, it helped save Earth from a climate change time bomb. Model Dev. All authors helped to further develop and improve it. Dozens of cities, states and nations are enacting bans and restrictions on single-use plastic bags and other items. Finally, we also note that there may be errors in the model projections if factors such as changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation are not properly parameterised. Chang. How come? The Kigali Amendment amends the 1987 Montreal Protocol that was designed to close growing ozone hole in by banning ozone-depleting coolants like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The two World Avoided Simulations give similar trends: With the exception of Palmer Station in winter, there is good agreement between the trends derived from the two World Avoided simulations. Best, M. J. et al. Topic: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment. Kotilainen, T., Lindfors, A., Tegelberg, R. & Aphalo, P. J. Corresponding plots for all other sites are in Supplementary Data. A crowd observes the worlds first Earth Day on April 23, 1970, in Fairmount Park in Philadelphia. & Newman, P. New Zealands World Avoided by the success of the Montreal Protocol. The issue of the hole in the ozone layer took time to enter mainstream consciousness but once it became scientific fact then action was taken. Sci. In Fig. Open Access articles citing this article. the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in 27, 25022509, https://doi.org/10.1364/AO.27.002502 (1988). Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan at Camp David in November 1986. Much has been made of the domestic political roadblocks between US President Barack Obama and climate action. Applying nitrogen fertilizer to corn at the W.K. Chem. The figure shows that the World Avoided trends depend greatly on latitude and that differences between the two model runs are also latitude-dependent. Thirty Years After Montreal Pact, Solving the Ozone Problem Remains Elusive. McKenzie, R. L., Johnston, P. V. & Seckmeyer, G. UV spectro-radiometry in the network for the detection of stratospheric change (NDACC). The chlorofluorocarbons, used in refrigerators and air-conditioners and as propellants in products like hair spray, were drifting into the upper atmosphere and breaking down in ways that were thinning the ozone layer. The 44th meeting of the Open-ended Working Group of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ( OEWG 44 ), which convened in July 2022, laid the groundwork for decisions to be taken at MOP 34. Deviations between the modeled and measured TOCs become larger at higher latitudes, especially in the southern hemisphere. Photosynth. Protecting the ozone layer presents a much greater industrial and political challenge than previously thought, says Rowley. Nature 315, 207210, https://doi.org/10.1038/315207a0 (1985). Arora, V. K. et al. UVI calculated from World Avoided and World Expected simulations for the period 1960 to 2100 for high (a,d), mid (b,e), and low (c,f) latitudes. Huntingford, C. & Cox, P. M. An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations. Geosci. PubMed Impact of geoengineered aerosols on the troposphere and stratosphere. Native Guardians: Canadas First Nations Move to Protect Their Lands, How Digital Technology Is Helping Decode the Sounds of Nature, Last Resort: Moving Endangered Species in Order to Save Them, As UN Climate Talks Near, a Showdown on Reparations Looms, Unraveling the Causes of the Pandemic, and Preparing for the Next, The Clean Water Act at 50: Big Successes, More to Be Done, As Rio Grande Shrinks, El Paso Plans for Uncertain Water Future, Phantom Forests: Why Ambitious Tree Planting Projects Are Failing, As Himalayan Glaciers Melt, a Water Crisis Looms in South Asia, Beyond Bidens Climate Plan, a New Industrial Revolution Is Needed, For a Scientist and Mother, Climate Change Is Generational Robbery, Why the Rush to Mine Lithium Could Dry Up the High Andes. We also note that measurements at these three remote sites are potentially affected by long-term drifts of approximately 1% per decade, which are associated with hardware modifications and changes in calibration standards. Photochem. PubMed Central In contrast, the World Expected scenario simulates changes in ozone resulting from curbing ozone-depleting substances in full compliance with the Montreal Protocol15. Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer. In Handbook of Environmental Chemistry (ed Boule, P.), 126, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg (1999). acknowledges funding from the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (Fellowship EP/N030141/1) and the Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/P019951/1). Morgenstern, O. et al. Global solar UV Index: A practical guide (eds World Health Organisation (WHO), World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), and International Commission on Non-Ionising Radiation Protection (ICNRP), https://www.who.int/uv/publications/en/UVIGuide.pdf (2002). It will declare that we are all ozone heroes. But are we patting ourselves on the back a bit too soon? Previous studies have also shown that the CCM models tend to overestimate ozone amounts. Fertilizer is a key source of nitrogen pollution which fouls air and water worldwide. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. Constraining the supply of chlorine from chemicals not regulated by the Montreal Protocol is particularly important. 4. Phys. Peer review information Nature thanks Pedro J. Aphalo, Benjamin Felzer, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Oecologia 127, 110 (2001). We also note that at most sites, the data quality and frequency have both increased over time. Note that the Brewer spectrophotometer at Thessaloniki is not part of the NDACC network and does not meet all NDACC specifications, mainly because of the limited wavelength range of the instrument (280365nm). McKenzie, R.), https://www.niwa.co.nz/atmosphere/uv-ozone/uv-science-workshops/2014-uv-workshop (2014). Correspondence to Photochem. 9, 24152440 (2016). Science 190, 5052 (1975). In these seasonal averages, where each data point is separated from the previous value by a period of 9 months, any statistical auto-correlation effects should also be small. 21, 209212, https://doi.org/10.1029/93GL03537 (1994). J. Geophy. UVI values in the future remain uncertain because of: possible volcanic eruptions, which could temporarily exacerbate ozone depletion as long as chlorine levels remain elevated; interactions with other aspects of climate change, such as changes in clouds and aerosols; slowly varying natural modes of variability42, such as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation43, which may affect cloud cover but are not included in the study; effects of increasing greenhouse gases, which will lead to stratospheric cooling and changes in dynamics that may subsequently cause ozone to increase above levels observed in 1980 outside polar regions; non-compliance to the Montreal Protocol, such as found in a recent study44. Molina speaking about climate change at the Guadalajara International Book Fair in Mexico, Nov. 2018. However, this detection target is extremely challenging and can be met only at wavelengths of less than 300nm11. Observations of unexpected springtime decrease in stratospheric ozone over Antarctica2 commonly referred to as the ozone hole led to the rapid adoption of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 19873. Even though some uncertainties remain in the models, the agreement in geographic and seasonal patterns gives confidence that they can be used to project future changes. For latitudes poleward of 45, UVI values in winter are less than 10% of the summer peaks. Model results for ozone were supplied by O.M., P.N. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 350, 403409, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2018.06.015 (2018). Close bar If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate. Rev. Furthermore, specific sites are not necessarily well represented by the zonal means used in the model. Topic: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment 5. Lett. Rep. 9, 12332 (2019). Incorporated in Article 2A. It was also deeper than other recent holes and lasted longer. Take heart: the Montreal Protocol is proof that climate progress is still regionally and globally possible. It is a timely paper, since a proposal is on the table to rejigger the treaty in a way that could help us still more in slowing the rate of climate change. Kellogg Biological Station, a research site in Michigan. For all scenarios, the clear-sky UVI at noon was interpolated from a 5D table of UVI as a function of ozone amount, solar zenith angle (SZA), altitude (pressure), aerosol optical depth, and surface albedo that had been pre-computed with the discrete-ordinate26 implementation in the TUV radiative transfer model27. PubMed linkedinlink opens in a new window. CAS Earth Then and Now: Amazing Images of Our Changing World. Before 1997, measurements at the NSF (National Science Foundation) sites were taken only once per hour while spectral scans have been performed every 15minutes in later years. Philippe Tortell, University of British Columbia, Paul Krummel, CSIRO; Bronwyn Dunse, CSIRO; Nada Derek, CSIRO; Paul Fraser, CSIRO, and Paul Steele, CSIRO, Matt Rigby, University of Bristol; Luke Western, University of Bristol, and Steve Montzka, University of Colorado Boulder, Anastasia Telesetsky, University of Idaho, Shane Keating, UNSW Sydney and Darryn Waugh, Johns Hopkins University, A.R. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model descriptionpart 2: carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics. ISSN 1476-4687 (online) The much larger NH/SH differences reported in the past31,32,33,34 also include effects of clouds and aerosols, which were not considered in the CCM calculations. Alarm bells are ringing about dozens of other short-lived, potentially ozone-destroying chlorine compounds accumulating in the atmosphere as a result of fast-rising global manufacturing. Scientific Reports (Sci Rep) 4. 4, we compare measured, calculated, and projected UVIs for summer at all 17 sites in Table1. A workshop on HFC management and a meeting of the Open-Ended Working Group of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol took place in Bangkok in April, and another meeting is scheduled for Paris in July. This suggests that the impact of the large spring-time ozone depletions persists for too long into the following summer in the model. Meinshausen, M. et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Global CFC-11 levels were rising and no one knew why. Nature Press, 2013). Paul J. To those paying attention, all of that has been known for years. For example, the summer of Dec 2017 to Feb 2018 is plotted at 2017. Improved representation of plant functional types and physiology in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES v4.2) using plant trait information. Of the 17 sites, only three (Lauder, Palmer, and Thessaloniki) have near-complete data coverage for the full period from 1996 to 2018. and JavaScript. Thank you for visiting nature.com. 4). 18, 49354964, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4935-2018 (2018). But Susan Strahan of NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center warns that the size of the hole in any given yearis still dominated by year-to-year variations in the temperature of the stratosphere and the vagaries of meteorology. & Caldwell, M. M. Ecosystem UV-B experiments in terrestrial communities: a review of recent findings and methodologies. Here, using a modelling framework that couples ozone depletion, climate change, damage to plants by ultraviolet radiation and the carbon cycle, we explore the benefits of avoided increases in ultraviolet radiation and changes in climate on the terrestrial biosphere and its capacity as a carbon sink. Goddard Earth Observing System chemistryclimate model simulations of stratospheric ozonetemperature coupling between 1950 and 2005. 2019-05-22T18:00:00Z. What the Montreal Protocol has done for the ozone hole threat other international accords could do for climate change if we all agree. Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube. The Antarctic hole would be 40 percent bigger than it is; the ozone layer over Europe and North America would be 10 percent thinner; the 2011 Arctic hole would have been Antarctic-sized; and we would be looking at about two million more cases of skin cancers by 2030, according to research conducted by Chipperfield and colleagues. A.B.H. J. Clim. After accounting for differences in elevation between the sites, we note that latitude-for-latitude, the mean summer UVI values tend to be larger at the southern hemisphere (SH) sites compared with the northern hemisphere (NH) sites, as has been predicted and observed previously31,32,33,34. Sites where the time series spans 20 years or more are denoted by bold text and solid symbols. in Climate Change 2013-The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) [EPA press release - April 5, 1988] Opening Statement at the Second Meeting of Parties to the Montreal Protocol. The authors declare no competing interests. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Montreal Protocol. URL https://www.nesi.org.nz. The swiftness with which the world community acted in arriving at the Montreal Protocol, setting up the Multilateral Fund to assist in phasing out ozone-depleting substances has been a remarkable achievement. 10, 11521160, https://doi.org/10.1039/C0PP00387E (2011). Amendment to Address HFCs under the Montreal Protocol On October 15, 2016, with the United States' leadership, 197 countries adopted an amendment to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol in Kigali, Rwanda. Both World Avoided datasets and the World Expected dataset were normalized to the average of the calculated UVI values of the years 1978 to 1987; the decade that immediately preceded the signing of the Montreal Protocol. By FredPearce Dee, D. P. et al. Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences Appl. These last three also provided the figures. the first fingerprints ofthe hole closing. At the Haute-Provence Observatory global irradiance measurements were available every 30min prior to September 2010, and every 15min after that date. 4), which peaks in the early part of the 21st century, is also present in the spring data (Fig. Plant. Dong, B. Geosci. The ozone layer filters out dangerous ultraviolet radiation from the sun that can cause skin cancer and damage many life forms. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) usually consider four pathways called RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, which are labelled according to the projected radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5W/m2, respectively). Share. 1. Even for the period since 1996, measured data are unfortunately incomplete at some sites, and only a small number of sites have full data coverage through to the end of 2018 (see Table1). P.J.Y., A.B.H. Wu, Y., Polvani, L. M. & Seager, R. The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting Earths hydroclimate. This has happened not just once, but six times over, including the underlying framework convention, the protocol, and its four amendments. J. Geophys. PubMedGoogle Scholar. 6) are significantly different from the World Avoided trends at all mid- and high-latitudes in the southern hemisphere, and at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. NDACC protocols (https://www.ndsc.ncep.noaa.gov/organize/protocols/appendix6/) require a measurement uncertainty of less than 5% in this wavelength range. CFC-113a is covered by a loophole that allows industries to apply for exemptions, Laube says. The sites considered for analysis cover a wide range of latitudes in both hemispheres, including the tropics, mid-latitudes, and polar regions (Table1). Photochem. Relationship between ozone and biologically relevant UV at 4 NDACC sites, Updated analysis of data from Palmer Station, Antarctica (64 S), and San Diego, California (32 N), confirms large effect of the Antarctic ozone hole on UV radiation, Persistent extreme ultraviolet irradiance in Antarctica despite the ozone recovery onset, Evaluation of Antarctic Ozone Profiles derived from OMPS-LP by using Balloon-borne Ozonesondes, Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020, https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/montreal-protocol-triumph-treaty, https://www.ndsc.ncep.noaa.gov/organize/protocols/appendix6/, https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=080000028003f7f7, https://www.niwa.co.nz/atmosphere/uv-ozone/uv-science-workshops/2014-uv-workshop, https://www.who.int/uv/publications/en/UVIGuide.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-13029-2011, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2018.06.015, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0684-0, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0106-2, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. They do not destroy the ozone layer, but they are potent at causing global warming. 18, 602640, https://doi.org/10.1039/c8pp90059k (2019). The 2015 hole was the fourth largest since 1991, peaking at an area larger than the continent of North America. Correspondence to The situation is more complex at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere, where the effects of changes in aerosol and clouds mask effects of ozone. What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? The Earth's ozone layer would have collapsed by 2050 with catastrophic consequences without the Montreal Protocol, studies have shown. However, six others (Barrow, Hoher Sonnblick, Boulder, Mauna Loa, Arrival Heights and South Pole) have only a few years of missing data over that period. That is exactly what many of his closest aides wanted him to do. Google Scholar. Other loopholes in the protocol are concerning researchers as well. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. There have been some recent bumper springtime holes in Antarctic ozone. Pawson, S. et al. The Montreal Protocol, a Little Treaty That Could, https://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/10/science/the-montreal-protocol-a-little-treaty-that-could.html. Internet Explorer). 3b, the peak UVI measured within one hour of local noon is compared with the UVI calculated for clear-sky conditions using the NIWA/BS ozone data. Google Scholar. Under the amendment, countries committed to cut the production and consumption of HFCs by more than 80 percent over the next 30 years. In Solar Ultraviolet Radiation. Morgenstern, O. et al. Nations have been working to reduce ozone-depleting chemicals since the 1980s, but recent studies show that there is still work to do.